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However, John Saltenberger, fire weather program manager with the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center, says they are less confident in forecasts more than five days out. Meteorologists are able to forecast up to 10 days into the future.
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Luckily, weather forecasting technology prevents these events from blindsiding us. The Climate Prediction Center currently predicts above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in Eastern Washington July through September. Much of Eastern Washington is at risk of drought, and some of it already is experiencing one. In the likely event of a more short stretches of hot, dry days like this past weekend, that wet, cold spring could really get us into trouble in Eastern Washington. And climate patterns like La Niña might set the stage for fire risk, but extreme weather events that happen on a much shorter time scale are what drive a critical fire weather day, Dehr says. Ultimately, summer weather and how we interact with nature matter much more than any spring climate conditions could, Dehr says. Washington’s assistant state climatologist Karin Bumbaco says La Niña isn't typically a player in our summertime weather. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service forecasts the pattern might continue through the fall and winter, Dehr notes, quickening the end of fire season.
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But this year, La Niña strengthened through May, something Dehr says has only happened twice since 1950. This notably wet season can be credited to unusual activity in the La Niña climate pattern, in which strong winds blow warm Pacific Ocean waters westward over many weeks or months, creating a cool, wet winter climate for the Pacific Northwest. In turn, that prevents live trees and plants from drying out and becoming easy fuel. That’s because rain increases soil moisture, which helps tamp down drought levels and also cools the air, keeping temperatures lower. On DNR land - 5.6 million of the state’s 45.6 million acres - 95 fires have burned 86 acres so far this year as of June 24, compared to 549 fires burning 1,584 acres over the same period last year. There are no state-level burn bans across Washington state as of June 23. Rain reduced early-season fire risk, experts say. Why it’s been a (mostly) calm fire season so far And a lot of that comes down to what happens when you get April showers: May flowers - or in Washington’s case, lots of grass. In some places, spring rains are actually likely to worsen fire risk later in the season. That’s because rain doesn’t eliminate the risk of wildfires. “But I don't know if I'm willing to say that for the east side,” he says. Lessons Learned provides a look back at a decade of wildfire in California’s wildland-urban interface (WUI) in the form of a StoryMap.Matthew Dehr, a fire meteorologist with the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), says he’s confident we’ll see a less-intense fire season on the west side of the state this summer. Southwest Post-Fire Resource Manager Toolkit is a site where fire managers, landowners, and communities can find guidance for assessing and preventing damage due to post-fire flooding and related events. Stream Water Quality: learning from Front Range wildfires is a resource that explains the effects of wildfire on stream water quality in Colorado. Water Quality After a Wildfire is a guide from the USGS California Water Science Center that provides a synthesis on the effects of wildfire on water quality. Passive or Active Management? Understanding consequences and changes after large, stand replacing wildfires is a Pacific Northwest Research Station Science Findings issue that debates whether passive or active management are appropriate following large wildfires.Įmergency Assessment of Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazards is a USGS tool that estimates the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced by a storm in a recently burned area.īurn Severity Explained: a StoryMap of the Shovel Creek Fire provides an example of burn severity assessment and ecology in interior Alaska. Managing Post-Fire, Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts in the Northwest is a report from the Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center and a synthesis on current knowledge and areas of need for post-fire vegetation shifts. Managing Forests After Fire is a Forest Service guide to post-fire management strategies and includes information on ecological and cultural post-fire occurrences.īurned Area Emergency Response (BAER) determines the need for and prescribes and implements emergency treatments on federal lands to minimize threats to life or property resulting from the effects of a fire or to stabilize and prevent unacceptable degradation to natural and cultural resources.